Insurers' Solar Space-Storm Risks Add to Black Swan Exposure, warns Bloomberg Intelligence

A major space storm could cost insurers even more than a hurricane like Katrina ($55 billion in 2005, or $90 billion today) given the capacity to interfere with radio communications, power grids, spacecraft and satellite navigation. According to a new report from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), the May 10-12 space storm may just be a taste of what's to come, with the current solar cycle forecast to peak in 2025.

Most Extreme G5 Geomagnetic Storm Since October 2003

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's space weather-prediction centre warned on May 10 that a large sunspot cluster had produced a series of strong solar flares, several of which - with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - were headed toward earth. CMEs are explosions of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun's corona which can cause magnetic storms on earth and have the potential to affect infrastructure in near-earth orbit and on the planet's surface, with the potential to impede communications, electric power grids, navigation, radio and satellite operations.

G5 is the space weather prediction centre's highest level on its scale of geomagnetic storm warnings. The last G5 storm in October 2003 led to power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa, notes BI.

Charles Graham, BI Senior Industry Analyst – Insurance, said: “Evidence from May 10-12 suggests the level of disruption caused by the solar storm on this occasion was relatively modest. There were no significant power failures, though extreme deviations in electrical wave patterns were widely observed across the US. Elon Musk's Space X Starlink internet constellation reported a degraded service, but it quickly returned to normal. The storm was also sufficient to result in navigational errors in tractors and other equipment relying on GPS and drove some farmers in the US and Canada to halt planting. Aircraft were also diverted to reduce the exposure of passengers and crew to radiation.

“The outcome could nevertheless have been much worse, which explains why the UK regards space storms as one of the highest priority natural hazards in its National Risk Register.”

AI Helps NASA Improve Solar-Storm Warnings

The early warning of solar-storm events may prove key to protecting an increasingly digitally connected world, adds BI. The globe is protected by a network of space weather-prediction centers including the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colorado, and the Met Office in the UK. A key focus of their work is monitoring solar activity to identify when solar flares and coronal mass ejections may be heading toward earth.

Graham added: “NASA is using artificial intelligence to analyze spacecraft measurements of solar wind to predict when an impending solar storm might strike. The technology could provide 30 minutes notice of where a geomagnetic storm is likely to occur anywhere on earth, enough time it is hoped for power grids and other critical infrastructure to take preventative measures.”